Middle East and North Africa: potential scenarios 2025 and 2050

The project aims to shed light on the historical, political, economic and social dynamics that are affecting the Middle East and North Africa. Particular attention will be devoted to the peculiar features of the new regional order as well as to the actors and processes that are influencing its development. The project will outline potential scenarios related to the course of the region in the medium (2025) and long (2040) term, and will analyze elements of continuity and break with the past. The project will sharpen our understanding of the region with a view to highlighting the potential strategies and policies that the EU is called upon to adopt in order to make its role in the region more effective. All this research will be based on quantitative and qualitative methods - including fact finding missions on the ground, interviews, focus groups, Delphi surveys - and innovative foresight techniques. For the future-oriented tasks the IZT-team is responsible. The project's acronym "MENARA" stands for "Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture" and in Arabic has the meaning "lighthouse". The project's first results were published in autumn 2016.
Marokko: Ain Beni Mathar Integrated Combined Cycle Thermo-Solar Power Plant © Dana Smillie / World Bank (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
MENARA - Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture: mapping geopolitical shifts, regional order and domestic transformations
2016 - 2019
European Commission

DANSK INSTITUT FOR INTERNATIONALE STUDIER / Denmark

UNIVERSITE AL AKHAWAYN D'IFRANE / Morocco

Kamusal Politika ve Demokrasi Calismalari Dernegi / Turkey

KING'S COLLEGE LONDON / United Kingdom

Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade / Hungary

EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE / Italy

American University of Beirut / Lebanon

EGMONT-INSTITUT ROYAL DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES / Belgium

OBSERVATOIRE MEDITERRANEEN DE L'ENERGIE / France

Qatar University / Qatar

LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE / United Kingdom

Overview

MORE: http://www.menaraproject.eu


The "Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture: mapping geopolitical shifts, regional order and domestic transformations" - the MENARA Project - will study the geopolitical order in the making in the South and East Mediterranean Countries and the Middle East amid all deep-reaching social and political changes unfolding since 2010. The project aims at describing the main features of the regional geopolitical order, its origins, and evolution; identifying and mapping the decisive domestic, regional and global actors, dynamics and trends; building future scenarios for 2025 and 2040; and informing EU policies and strategies. It will examine whether, where and when conflict and/or cohesion dynamics prevail, the level and depth of regional fragmentation and the effects of regional and domestic processes on global dynamics and vice versa. This will be achieved by analysing ideational and material factors (national, sub and supra-national identities; religion and politics; global identities; demography; energy; economy; military; environment) and by conducting in-depth research on specific case studies on ongoing dynamics at three different levels (domestic, regional and global). All this research will be based on quantitative and qualitative methods -including fact finding missions on the ground, interviews, focus groups, Delphi surveys - and innovative foresight techniques.

More information

Video (2:45): Dr. Edgar Göll (IZT) "Futures Research - an essential instrument of the MENARA project"

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Publikationen

  • 2019

  • Göll, Edgar; Colombo, Silvia; Soler i Lecha, Eduard (2019): Imagining Future(s) for the Middle East and North Africa. Project: Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture: Mapping geopolitical shifts, regional order and domestic transformations – MENARA. IAI - Istituto Affari Internazionali. Rom. (MENARA final reports, 2).

    Imagining Future(s) for the Middle East and North Africa

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  • Göll, Edgar; Uhl, André; Zwiers, Jakob (2019): Sustainable Development in the Mena Region. IAI - Istituto Affari Internazionali. Rom. (MENARA Future Notes, 20).

    Sustainable Development in the Mena Region

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  • Göll, Edgar; Colombo, Silvia; Soler i Lecha, Eduard (2019): Imaginer l(es) avenir(s) du moyen-orient et de le'afrique du nord. Project: Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture: Mapping geopolitical shifts, regional order and domestic transformations - MENARA. IAI - Istituto Affari Internazionali. Rome. (MENARA final reports, 2).

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  • 2018

  • Göll, Edgar; Zwiers, Jakob (2018): Technological Trends in the MENA Region: The Cases of Digitalization and Information and Communications Technology (ICT). Istituto Affari Internazionali. Rome. (MENARA Papers / Working Papers, 23).

    Technological Trends in the MENA Region: The Cases of Digitalization and Information and Communications Technology (ICT)

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  • 2017

  • Göll, Edgar (2017): Future Challenges of Climate Change in the MENA Region. Istituto Affari Internazionali. Rome. (MENARA Papers Future Notes, 7).

    Future Challenges of Climate Change in the MENA Region

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  • 2016

  • Göll, Edgar (2016): The Future. Foresight Studies on the Middle East and North Africa. In: Soler i Lecha, Eduard; Silvia Colombo; Lorenzo Kamel; Jordi Quero (Hg.): Re-conceptualizing Orders in the MENA Region. The Analytical Framework of the MENARA Project. No.1, November 2016. Barcelona-Spain, S. 88-100.

    The Future. Foresight Studies on the Middle East and North Africa

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