Methods of futures analysis and scenario analysis
Background: The German Development Institute (DIE), Bonn, is conducting a project on challenges and questions for the future of Development. In the face of growing uncertainties and complexity of the future in the field of Development, this projects aims at using methods of futures and scenario analysis to reflect and to orientate German and European development politics and policy.
The IZT has been commissioned to carry out a methodological study to identify different scenario approaches focusing their scopes, strengths and weaknesses. The study will also elaborate recommendations which approaches and instruments seem to be particularly appropriate for strategic orientation of development politics and policy. This study is based mainly on a review of current literature and on several interviews with experts.