Zielsetzung von EurEnDel war eine europaweite Analyse der langfristigen Entwicklungen im Energiesektor. Kernstück des Forschungsprojektes war eine Delphi-Studie in allen EU-Staaten und den osteuropäischen Beitrittsländern. Um die schnell voranschreitende technologische Entwicklung zielgerichtet für eine Transformation der Energiewirtschaft in Richtung Nachhaltigkeit nutzbar machen zu können, ist es sowohl notwendig, zu erwartende technologische Entwicklungen zu kennen als auch, die sich aus gesellschaftlicher Sicht stellender Bedürfnisse zu formulieren.
EurEnDel - Technology and Social Visions for Europe's Energy Future
2002 - 2004
European Commission (FP 5, EESD Program)


EurEnDel assesses long term developments in energy technologies, their potentials and expected impacts. The perspective taken integrates a technology push with a social pull approach embracing a time horizon of 30 years. The liberalisation of the energy sector, the increasing amount of trans national research as well as rapid technology developments challenge today's innovation systems and demand a greater integration and cohesion into EU-wide innovation strategies. EurEnDel employs a Union-wide Delphi survey to cover the need for reliable information on long-term trends and developments. Thus the project provides orientation knowledge and technical foresight to promote a sustainable European energy sector.

The core of EurEnDel is a Europe-wide Delphi survey with two rounds of expert consultations. The Delphi method is an appropriate approach not only to gain a consensual-based technological foresight, but also to integrate technological, social and economic perspectives of sustainable development. According to these two main foci, EurEnDel simultaneously examines how social requirements and technological developments exert influence on the speed, thrust and centre of innovation. The knowledge gathered allows an analysis of both what might happen in the future and what has to be done to secure long-term competitiveness and enhanced quality of life. In a first step, the state of the art of energy technology development in the EU Member and Accession States is defined. Future relevant issues are identified in expert interviews. In contrast to this technological push perspective, a social pull approach is endorsed, by analysing socio-economic trends. Concerns and opportunities regarding social developments are gathered in a "Futures Workshop" to extract future social demands. The most important issues are accentuated as Delphi statements. They provide the basis for a standardized questionnaire, which is mailed to 3,000 European experts. The data gathered is analysed and subsequently returned to the participants for revaluation.
A thorough evaluation of both rounds is conducted to assess the major Europe- wide technological trends, social requirements, challenges and possible solutions.

A consensual and systematic assessment of future energy technology developments on EU level including the expected range of diffusion, chances and constraints was carried out. EurEnDel provides orienting knowledge and technical input to the European Union considerations with respect to installing an appropriate framework which promotes a sustainable development of the energy sector. Additionally, it advances a better understanding of the dynamics and determinants of technological development in different energy environments. It supports enterprises in their efforts to develop customised products and gives industrial and municipal decision makers an information basis for energy related planning. During the survey process all findings were open to public access on the project web-site. In a series of national and Europe-wide workshops the results of the survey were disseminated and a lively discussion on appropriate measures to strengthen the EU innovation system was set off.


Download the Summary Report (2004) (356 kB, 34 pages)

Download the Final Report (2004): (565 kB, 98 pages)

Book Publication:

Wehnert, Timon; López Araguás, Juan Pedro; Bernardini, Oliviero; Jaworski, Lukasz; Holst Jørgensen, Birte; Jörß, Wolfram; Nielsen, Oliver; Ninni, Augusto; Oniszk-Poplawska, Anna und Velte, Daniela (2007): /European Energy Futures 2030. Technology and Social Visions from the European Energy Delphi Survey/. Springer-Publications. Heidelberg: Springer. ISBN-13: 978-3540691648

Further Publications:

  • Velte, Daniela; López de Araguas, Juan Pedro; Nielsen, Oliver; Jörß, Wolfram und Wehnert, Timon (2006): /The EurEnDel Scenarios - Europe's Energy System by 2030/. WerkstattBericht Nr. 80. Berlin: IZT – Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung. Download  (558.2 KB) more...
  • Jörß, Wolfram and Wehnert, Timon (2006): /Quantitative co-assessment of the EurEnDel Delphi results/. ArbeitsBericht Nr. 22. Berlin: IZT – Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung. Download (227.3 KB) more ...


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