Crisis radar - strengthening the resilience of society, politics and the economy through crisis prediction

The corona pandemic shows the vulnerability and susceptibility to crises of complex societies that are highly interdependent globally. Modern societies have shown themselves to be less stable and more vulnerable than many had assumed. Further crises of this magnitude cannot be ruled out in the future. Financial crashes, global migration movements, a rise in nationalism and populism, climate change and resource scarcity are developments and events that, in their synergistic interaction within the framework of societal development paths, can lead to escalations of a hitherto unknown kind. In the sense of preventing as well as overcoming profound crises, it is essential that warning signs are identified at an early stage. Within the framework of the TA project, it will be investigated how a continuous anticipatory crisis radar would have to be designed and institutionally - also on an international level - anchored in order to ensure early crisis and risk management.
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Crisis radar - strengthening the resilience of society, politics and the economy through crisis prediction
2021 - 2023
Deutscher Bundestag / Büro für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung beim Deutschen Bundestag (TAB)

Overview

Although there is no lack of institutions that apply instruments for early detection, the insights gained are not sufficiently used, networked and translated and integrated into political processes. To date, risk analyses are often missing the necessary foresight. Crises and risks are not seen and thought of systemically, but rather predominantly as a state of emergency that must be countered in an acute manner - and for a limited period of time.

In order to be better prepared for the occurrence of global shocks in the future, a permanent and global early warning system is necessary that recognises possible risks and dangers at an early stage and thus enables forward-looking crisis and risk management. The overarching goal of all measures is ultimately to maintain the vitality of society and avoid extreme situations that have a negative impact.

The aim of the TA project is to lay the foundations for early crisis and risk management by researching how a continuously foresighted crisis radar would have to be designed and anchored at the international level. This results in two guiding questions: What are the deficits in the early detection of systemic threats? Which instruments, institutions and consultation mechanisms in the political sphere would have to be improved or created in order to ensure a rapid, comprehensive and sustainable response to crisis events? To this end, the TA project will comprise a total of four modules:

  • Module 1: Lessons Learnt: Real Lab Corona - Experiences with Early Warning Systems in the Current Pandemic Crisis
  • Module 2: Future crises: prospective analysis of hazards with high crisis potential and vulnerability analyses in selected societal subsystems
  • Module 3: Institutional anchoring of early detection of systemic threats 
  • Module 4: Resilience promotion: new perspectives for transformative resilience

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