Horizon scanning

Method description

Horizon scanning is the systematic monitoring of known trends as well as the identification of completely new, relevant developments in a specific scanning field. This method of strategic early detection is already used in some countries and companies to anticipate changes, opportunities and risks at an early stage. In German politics, this approach was hardly widespread until 2012. The Federal Environment Agency therefore commissioned the IZT to develop a "horizon scanning system" for strategic early detection specifically for environmental policy. IZT cooperated with the Environmental Policy Research Centre at the Free University of Berlin and Condat AG Berlin. In addition to trends, megatrends and megatopics as well as emerging issues also play a role in horizon scanning. The horizon scanning process consists of the following steps: determining the information needs and the scan field (scoping), selecting sources and methods and researching topics (scanning), identifying so-called environment topics, an expert discourse and preparing the scan report (assessment of the relevance of environment topics). The concept study for the Federal Environment Agency illustrates how the workflow for horizon scanning could look in detail, shows options for information technology support and makes suggestions for a step-by-step development of a horizon scanning system at the Federal Environment Agency.