The IZT carried out a comprehensive scenario analysis on behalf of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. The analysis illustrates what different futures could look like under different national and international framework conditions and what role Germany can play in these constellations. By involving experts and stakeholders in the construction of the scenarios and drawing on the scientific expertise of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, a methodological approach was pursued with a combination of explorative, participatory, analytical and illustrative elements. The scenarios are intended to sensitise people to how different the challenges may look in possible futures. The scenario analysis was part of the turnaround discourse.

The term "turning point" refers to a radical process of change in which the complex global society finds itself. Among the many crisis-ridden phenomena, disruptive processes and conflict arenas, the threat to representative democracy in the 21st century stands out in particular. Authoritarian systems and parties are becoming more attractive, the acceptance and support of democracy as a convincing form of government is eroding, and special exceptional situations (Covid-19) are challenging democratic procedures. New value discourses must find their way into politics, science and the public sphere in order to preserve social peace and strengthen the population's willingness to support transformation processes. The explorative scenario development was carried out in the context of these questions.